2012年3月8日星期四

Reform of the demographic logic

Arab spring shocked the world. The spring of Arab meshach han han shame. Change, regardless of east and west, all become a potential. The People's Daily newspaper published the reform, is comes from this. A Tunisia by vendors and detonated the youth in the heart of Arab anger. 10 million young people up for their rights, from this, ali to hosni mubarak, Mr Qaddafi, then to assad, a strong dictators are its shock, Jordan's king thus give up power, implement active reform. The potential of the raging storm revolutionary movement can succeed, no doubt, modern triumphant. Network for the modern's contact function, special grade contact the tools of tyre appear, all to young people who have dedicates way gathered to powerful social organization. But, hidden in the great victory of behind a very secret reason, but also in the Arab countries are "young country", the youth population advantage,cheap new era hats laid the foundation of victory in the revolution. In these countries, 15 to 30 years old of the population, dominate the largest proportion of the population. And the 30 years old of the following population, all accounted for more than 70% of the population,. Thus, we see, any revolution, actually has its population logic, this logic is, first, the youth population, have to occupy most of the population, two, appeal to young people, become the mainstream of society demands. And the Arabian in the spring, is in line with the two big logic. In these countries, young people become the mainstream of society, and the mainstream population, are faced with the danger of marginalization. The World Bank (World Bank) in a cloth tragedy aziz a few months ago issued a report warning: "no young people, especially not for their investment needed to create jobs and will make more vulnerable youth, there is the risk of being marginalized," according to the international Labour organization of data, the young people are now known to the highest unemployment rate in the Middle East and north Africa is, the two are the unemployment rate is about 24%. Even those who seek to accept higher education, also sad to find no useful. And in the most violent of existing regime against Libya, youth population proportion is more big, only 15 to 35 years old of the population, that is 79% of the total population. At the same time, the youth of unemployment and more serious, the international monetary fund (IMF) estimate Libya unemployment at record high of 30%. A large number of young people can't obtain employment, plus solution, plus the corruption and the gap between rich and poor, revolution in recent days. Aziz and die by cloth, it is the fuse detonated revolution. Though young people in wealth is poor, male hormone is the most exuberant, and at the same time, talent and energy and in life peak. Cloth of aziz suicide, by a group of young and clever unemployed graduates hold, they spread on Facebook news, but also to al-jazeera (Al Jazeera) provide * * * image and pictures. Young people's bloody, make them with roots in the stand for the fear out of tyranny, in Egypt, and when the * * * in the liberation square face security forces not shrink back, and even began to replace one tyranny with another, not the youth of the flight, but military police. And in Libya, when Mr Qaddafi threatened to put the revolutionaries as ruthless as mice clear, has no fear that he, even on the battlefield, the unprecedented appear "guitar elder brother". China since modern times, can keep revolution, finally g ChengJianGuo undertaking and complete national and democratic primary revolution, also is the good population structure. From the late qing dynasty to the founding eve, China's population about around 500 million, accounting for a quarter of the world's population at that time, and, more important, the population structure to youth primarily. With youth, is the nation's future the most important strategic resources. Thus, even if the old China holes, numerous people with lofty ideals, also full aspire to China. In 1900 years, and one hundred years late, when manchu has death, China is the GuaFenDouPou was, liang qichao is still full of enthusiasm to write the eternal name "the young Chinese said," sun yat-sen dare to planning China's future prosperity of the founding strategy ", MAO zedong dare to predicted that the victory of Chinese revolution, is to be born baby, is the Soviet sunrise. Square ambition the quick dared to imagine the future "lovely Chinese". China really is capital imagine a better future. In the one hundred years of a large domestic revolution and foreign war, China the final victory, the decision-making power lies in youth as China's biggest rivals during world war ii, Japan was killed 5 million, 7% of the population, while China even if military and civilian death 30 million, only 6% of the population, at that time, China's population structure, 30 years old the following population, to more than 70%. Plenty of youth population, so that the Chinese people have enough capital, dare to fight all the forces. Sun yat-sen startup republican, MAO zedong reengineering republican, all the current population sees the advantage. The victory of the closing, have also benefited from China's population structure, so dare to play SiZhang, endless, warriors and promote high morale, even the world the first military power, also have to count, dare not go with China population consumption. Is not empty. In my family, for example the roche, my grandparents four brothers (the grandparents elders cannot take an examination, temporary women slightly), great grandpa at home soil, two grandpa to the red army, revolution that is done the company commander, because the eye is blind last play a wild, solitary, ultimately escape the kuomintang after, my grandfather was the third, also took part in the revolution, after the founding and become a local team leader, four grandpa in wuhan business, a brother four people, two people take part in the revolution, and the remaining two brothers, enough to give parents endowment, and deal with other family turbulence. So the family structure, the revolutionary violence deterrence everywhere, the hope of revolution on sustainability. The so-called "kill XiaMingHan, and future generations," is not just a word of heroic slogan, but real being.The father died following the son, brother QiuDi report, on the sword, the autocratic powers must fear, be completely a paper tiger, the revolutionary forces once mobilization, such as wild grass prairie is, ultimately all the ruin of the dark forces. Reform and opening up a sense can be called the modem Chinese third revolution, the moist and extensive revolution for the success, also because enough youth. At the beginning of the reform, the huge young people, form the great society forward momentum. In May 1980, a signature "PanXiao" letters from readers of the life in the whole society, o road has caused great shock, for young people to find a way out of consensus, and become to promote the reform and open policy the ranges. And in social and family organization, at that time of China's population structure, but also for the rise of China provides resources. After the reform, the progress of science and technology, improve the knowledge and culture of young people is the premise of the youth, and enough from the age of the elite, to become the wet, also is the main today. In addition to the society in political field, most of the organization operation, the production, the creation, are the main people, young mainstream social forces and elite of the younger, decided the strategic height of countries.In the low end of the field, China has become the world's factory and also depends on China's population structure. A large number of labor source, depends on the huge number of youth. In the rural areas, for example, the early and middle reform, a large number of farmers youth become industry youth, specific family division as follows, home brothers and sisters average of about 3 person, a person at home soil and help parents at home, get married, and the rest of the brothers and sisters out do not have trouble back at home, or, or their brothers and sisters out,cheap nfl jerseys but who share expenses, help parents set up possessions. So, China's labor market, just energetic. Form China's early in the family's famous "meet three have a" real practice. By is, the reform and opening up 30 years, millions of young blood and sweat, competition into today's work, China for the national jumped second largest economy, completed a preliminary rise. Things are the changes. China is no longer young country. From the founding to at the beginning of the reform, the average age of China in 27 years old or so, to 1996, the average age of the China break through 30 years old, to 2008 breakthrough 35, to 2022, China's average age, soon to be 40 years old, and to 2050, China's average age will reach 50 years old, as the world average age of the highest countries, aging population will reach more than 400 million, literally become the world first the kingdom of old man. Hundreds of years ago, in the XiongWen liang qichao's "the young Chinese said," will be youth is the subject of human society, and old people for the society of main body made a thorough contrast, an ageing society will in psychological general direction conservative, this lack of energy and courage, the whole country to the kingdom of mugs, lack of hemorrhagic. At the same time, the aging of the population, because of the limited energy, there are also wisdom degradation, the entire nation, wisdom and courage all wu, into no hope the kingdom of death. The country is young, the national promising, the country is the old man, the decay can stay. Thus, too birth planning, equal to the national hemorrhagic self neutered, the spirit of the nation, self atrophy. Of course, such as the stability is the first priority, the strict birth control, actually prevent young form the secrets of the forces of reform sleeve. The future times, China needs to further deepen the reform, thoroughly complete the modernization of China, and this grand occasion of reform, China is the fourth big than change. Large youth population, energetic and courage of the national spirit, also is the great changes in four times the source of power. Japan three times for China's revolution can be for reference, since modern times, Japan in the late nineteenth century of the Meiji restoration, 20 century the constitutional reform, all basic successful, but, since the late twentieth century the third social revolution, but has not yet success, and a important reason, is the youth population too little, in economic, want to drive consumption, encourage creation, in politics, and break the old man political, family politics, are not enough not to youth, therefore, representatives of the forces of the youth JiuShanYouJiFu even though a rise, but Japan's mainstream society is not for young people to control the, hatoyama was quickly reform strangulation society, ChengDaQi difficult. China's fourth big change, can break Japanese destiny?

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