China's stock market took off the shackles of liquidity

September import and export and monetary data shows that the Chinese economy faces mild down, private sector investment insufficient power of the status quo. The stock market of China's economic folly, restore its does not exist, China's economy is most stabilising, if the next two quarters, policy housing investment growth is not an alternative to the commodity house investment back, then China is still in the first half of next year will be the economic downturn. Is nearly two months of macro liquidity to improve asset prices have support role. This means that the stock market rebounded valuations is the main point, not a listed company profits improved. In September, China's export amount year-on-year growth of 25.1%, the import amount year-on-year growth of 24.1% respectively,MLB hats from a low of 9.3 and 11.1% in August. The author estimated adjusting for inflation in September quantity year-on-year rate of increase of about 20%, year-on-year rate of increase import quantity is about 11%, more QianYue dropped 6-10%. Import and export the big drop the main reason is caused by the ams uplift, export growth of decline in September and didn't look so serious. But there is concern that export growth slowed in the third quarter has been formed, and the decline of import growth since 2 quarter began, but the extent of the decline is not as year-on-year drop in September data of degree look so serious. We have already seen manufacturing PMI all major economies to 2 quarter rises the drop, the us, the eurozone and Japan without exception, Brazil, India's manufacturing PMI are already significant drop, and more of the leading Chinese Taiwan, South Korea PMI also appears significant decline, and China PMI export orders index is mild picks up, we believe the Chinese economy and the world needs the possibility of decoupling is very low, therefore, China's export growth fell gradually should is the trend. In fact, we estimate from China export commodity number (less price factors) growth trend has value from 2007 of 20% to 25%, the first half of 2009 the minimum down to 0-5%, early 2010 rebound to only 10% 15%, and in the fourth quarter of 2010 May appear dropped again trend. In September 595.5 billion the domestic renminbi credit growth, in expectations, bill after deducting the financing, the new credit up to 690 billion RMB, a XinZengE high in August 120 billion, basically can be factors explain the season, there is no credit demand growth speeded up. From the credit structure perspective, the long-term credit growth residents department 152.6 billion, accounts for the long-term credit than a modest rise by 5% to 60.8%, while bill after deducting financing, enterprise long-term loans accounted for more than continues to go down, down 5% from the same period last year, the whole enterprise long-term loans accounted for three quarter compared to the same period in 09 sharply down 19%, absolute number has dropped dramatically 22%, suggesting that enterprise investment will still is not high. At the same time, September enterprise current deposit and the proportion of the M2 by the season after continue to fall, lasted two quarter since the break since, display, 8, 9 months of the economy rebounded stabilising may not be a tendency, future economic growth is likely to continue to fall back. The entire third quarter credit growth slightly more than the central bank plan, but it was not enough to let the central bank should strengthen the credit control.MLB Jerseys Recently the central bank balance of legal improve bank deposit reserve rate two months and it is said that the coming off three central directional ticket (central bank in 2007, 11 October to five line and had nine the joint-stock Banks to issue 150 billion 3 10-year orientation camp ticket) about, freezing liquidity scale also only slightly more than expire scale, according to data released by the central bank calculate, the big commercial Banks in September of ChaoChu rate is at least a 0.5% increase in August, show monetary market liquidity is still loose, and September rally further to foreign exchange combines growth 280 billion, M2 growth has stabilising the tightening of macro liquidity that has been in the past, the stock market supportive.

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