The bull market phase ii should not hold cash

China's stock certificate report ZhuYu Hong Kong investment critics CaoRenChao reporters to accept Chinese stock certificate report A reporter interviews that, the A share market after the National Day of rose after continuous, will be near 3200 have resistance. CaoRenChao to think, now A share market is still in the "bull market phase ii" in, investors can "change A horse", but cannot hold the cash, but when large rises when the blue chip investors should be cautious. But "change A horse" is the cash reporter: A share market after the attack on National Day for peatlands, continuous conquer 2700 points, 2800 points, at 2900.25 integer, you think of this rare entity when it rose over?baseball hats CaoRenChao: in the Shanghai index on July 2, 2319 points to complete a bull market adjustment period, into the second phase of a bull market. The bull market phase ii is the slow cow period, after rising in July, August and September appear digestion, October rise again. According to the measured increase, short-term resistance level near 3200, or 2319 points only for short term such as absorbing the bull, can be in about 3200 points profit taking. Reporter: in the days of the continuous rise in Indonesia, and blue chip index to promote the motivation, small dish stock most weak, including some terminal consumer stocks, whether this heralds the a-share market will see A blue chip push of the bull market prices? Among them which industries can continuous attention? CaoRenChao: bull market phase ii is round of speculation, and with the second line shares to give priority to. Every time the stock market's big blue chip big rise just when be careful, such as October. As for which industry can concern, because I am not in the mainland, not deep analysis of the individual sectors, so can't help a lot. Reporter: you said before the bull market is currently in phase ii, only three periods of bull market market can blind rise, but the two days of crazy let us see a bull market three issues of the shadow? You say three period will be a bull market in action? The bull market three period will be what features? CaoRenChao: at present distance 3 period still very distant bull market, at least for a year or more. Many investors every time when the stock market rise and thought it was a bull market 3 period to come, but forget a bull market usually lasts three to seven years, longer have 11 years. Reporter: investors now is this continue to purchase additional strong gains blue-chip stocks, or the profits, or choose not to have rising plate involvement? CaoRenChao: in the bull market phase ii investors can change a horse, such as rose more stock can sell out and buy rose few stocks continue hold, but should not hold cash, be careful therefore be kicked out, can't return to the stock market. The yuan will continue to rise to the stock market crazy reporter: recent developed economies new quantitative easing lead to global asset prices soar, investment goods market opportunities, whether it has to come? CaoRenChao: commodity market would continue to rise, but estimated future increase is not big, because the U.S. unemployment rate is still as high as 9.6%, growth rates of consumer products is not high. Investment commodity market should be in February 2009 and not today. The A shares rise from the main reason announced the launch of the second round of quantitative easing, this also is A shares this year on July 2, rebounding reason reason, because the dollar index since this year June dropped again, estimates that this round the climax of the market in November after. Reporter: in the United States and Japan leads, the Asian countries make moves intervention their exchange rates, it will not cause "currency war", the RMB and Hong Kong dollars and will go? CaoRenChao: currency war as early as 1971 already began, for example in October 2002 to October 2007 us stocks rising power comes from the dollar. July 2005 to September the appreciation of the renminbi 27% once attracted A large amount of foreign capital inflows, cause when Chinese credit too loose, and trigger A shares index KuangSheng in those days. From began in March 2009, believe that history will repeat itself once again. Relative to the federal reserve, China and Hong Kong monetary authority power is not strong, couldn't resist the pressure produced the dollar, like 1990 and 2003 dollar and picks up, make Hong Kong stock market bubble burst and the property market and appear. Reporter: in your years of investment experience, the current global currency market chaotic situation, how will finally end? Among them what investment opportunities can grasp? CaoRenChao: 1987 yen appreciation reference of experience, currency war is to the country's stock market and property prices KuangSheng first and then slump. Reference to 1990 to 2003 Hong Kong experience is also like this. See again in July 2005 to November 2008 the Shanghai a-share index end also almost. The other a currency war by March 2009 already started, and the end, will you? In April 2009 I back to the mainland speech ever emphasized "A new round of A bull market has already started." Reason is at a time when the us government's just come out quantitative easing, the Chinese government has learned from July 2005 to November's painful lesson. So this a force out the appreciation of the renminbi,NFL Jerseys but can hold how long? When A large amount of foreign capital pouring into China caused by monetary flood, finally the A share market can not KuangSheng? (namely the bull market 3 period appear.) This fate, the Chinese government can turn? China is Japan's good because China is half of the implementation of the open policy, can use tools more. In July 2005 to September experience look, such as the Chinese government once allow the yuan was substantial revaluation, don't rule out another market slump KuangSheng repeat itself.

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