If you think that 2011 years the world economic situation, market confusing falling and high risk factors of words, 2012 days are having a hard time. In addition to the United States in 2011 May be less growth situation improved outside, most existing conflicts, and trouble continue to exist, and will deteriorate further. New contradictions, risk will emerge, the government through the fiscal expansion to stimulate the economy is already close to dispersed, monetary policy has relaxed space and need, but is not necessarily ideal effect. The author thinks that, in 2012, has three big suspense. The debt crisis in Europe debt crisis intensified,baseball sunglasses and to the European countries and the European banking system core spread. European leaders in the last year four save the city, every time is have. In the first half of 2012, Italy face huge funding pressure, France and other core countries risk facing relegation, Greece is likely to default, or even by eliminating the euro zone. The European economy into a recession, unemployment high, and governments have to tighten fiscal, cuts in welfare, the seething popular discontent, political instability is conceivable. Italy in in the present higher translated a lot, near the remedy is worse than the, only for future buried greater consequences. The French rating was cut almost inevitable. Although the total debt better than Italy France, but large fiscal deficits; More important, the French bank faces significant liquidity crises, and may even evolvement for the credit crisis. If the French bank an accident, need government aid, the French national debt may become the next dominoes. If France of the sovereignty of the credit rating is a reduction in the market price level has reflected, if be cut more than two levels, the French sustainable debt paying ability, will be disastrous. Germany's financial situation and financial law is the good, but if the debt crisis further deepening, Germany will have to be involved in the euro debt issuance, it may also was the impact of speculators. The author of the European bank to worry about, or even exceed the European national sovereignty to worry about debt. The European central bank to provide 3 10-year liquidity and six central bank of swap arrangement about dollars, temporarily relieve the original bank crisis looming, but the Banks did not out of trouble. The pig countries and exit the euro debt default, all may be to make European bank asset quality drop, eastern Europe debt crisis also in brewing in. Meanwhile, European Banks need to rapidly increased capital adequacy ratio, hundreds of Banks and translated by now, in the next disaster would be impossible. Tighter credit, economic deterioration, bad debt rise, the circle is hard to break down capital. The bank is the heart of modern capitalism, money is the blood. European Banks once something, at any time can bring a new financial storm. It is not always happen, but risks are, indeed, to rise. Since the fed quantitative loose in the 1950 s from the Treasury after the leadership, bernanke is the most willing to curry favor with the President of the federal reserve chairman. Election year, bernanke to restart the will of the QE is quite high, but the United States congress, the American public opinion but opposed, and even the fed the opinions of the internal unity hard also. Bernanke in waiting for an opportunity. Either the United States economy in the second agent risk, or European bank crisis, the fed can then logical to launch QE3. The author thinks that, the former appear unlikely, the latter possibility of not small. When European Banks into chaos, and may be felt in the us financial system security, QE3 can openly in the house. This event estimated happen in the first half of 2012. Meanwhile, the European central bank may interest rates come down to 0-0.5%, and increase the bonds to buy dynamics, Europe and also join QE. Us and European day three central bank (and perhaps the bank of England) water again hand in hand, may be one of the wonders of the world in 2012. But QE can't save the economy, to the influence of the market is lesser also. If QE2 employment and growth of limited help, QE3 is the same prescription, the effect is not good. The central bank to water, of course, the market mood and liquidity will bring positive exciting, but the market effect is not necessarily can be sustained, energy should also is degressive. To market the most influence QE1, because the central bank when Banks began to increase water lever. From the QE2, after the lever of the bank is no longer increases, still reluctant to economic entity lending, so hard to lasting effect. QE3 introduced, the author believe that Banks are to leverage all for the capital,NBA Hats ready to increase the Basel agreement and struggle. The base currency increase, but the multiplier effect drop, liquidity is still limited. China's financial mess 3 years ago China economic downturn, is the innocent victims of the global financial crisis. But in the past three years, China's economy has produced many of the dislocation and the mess. 2009 years of stimulus, in the author seems to be should, timely, but exit time delay too long, shrinkage strength too light, make a real estate bubble and local debt is out of control. After the monetary policy adjustment, and excessive dependence on quantitative tools in, cause bank intermediary function weakening, shadow Banks in the benchmark interest rate, and market interest rates (that is, the folk lending rate) apart. In 2012 China's financial system into high-risk period. In the economy into a downward cycle, folk lending, development business cash flow could happen at any time, should our estimate jumps, real estate market, local financing platform of small risk. Also, the field of the mess is often a part of a ring buckle. IMF in the recent bank system risk assessment report, the real estate market, shadow Banks, the local finance, look be like their isolation, also in the control of the government in, but several "isolated" event serial blasting, it may bring systemic risk. China's financial risk compared to Europe and the United States wants relatively small, but the intensity of the risk may be the highest after bank reform, and has become a global financial market of new concerns. China's economic growth slowed, have no doubt anymore, but the author do not worry. In the field of finance in a variety of distortion and the mess, and thus may bring financial systemic risk, they cannot treat STH lightly. Today in China in the field of finance potential risks and may be the highest since 1997.
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