2012年3月16日星期五

The bank as food industry

A huge food the class are gouging the Chinese economy, the Chinese economy structure transformation with difficulties. After China's entry into the WTO, enjoy the 10 years of domestic-demand dividends, and the China economy turned to domestic demand from, due to financial constraints, the Chinese economy gradually turned to food and mode. In 2011, the entity economy a devastation, any engaged in capital allocation and related industries, such as guarantee, pawn, bank etc, all can with the benefit, they have actually capital shortage premium and risk premium. The author and even have heard that construction in the room of the company to ensure the low capital, first put into market for big profits. The financial industry interdenominational, eating other industry profits. According to the regulation of the financial departments of the data show that commercial Banks in the first three quarters in 2011 accumulative total net profit of 817.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%. Among them, the workers,best sunglasses farmers, and built into five line of total net profit of 518.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Bank profits from shortage premium and risk premium. The more nervous funds, bank of the lack of the higher premiums for, 2011, bank net spreads significant rebound. In the previous three quarters, and net spreads factor to the listed bank net profit contribution to the growth of 4.6% in 2010 from ascending to 8%. In 2012, the banking industry is expected to net spreads will basic stability, the average net spreads will be higher than that of 2011 5 point or so, net spreads factor to the listed bank of net profit contribution will decline to 1.5% role. The risk premium is reflected in the small and medium-sized enterprise loans, small and medium-sized enterprise, the risk is higher, the bank to demand higher interest rates to cover risk, citic securities research report predicted that as new loans accounted for small and medium-sized enterprises to raise funds than high premium. According to the latest central bank monetary policy implementation report, the first three quarters of 2011 small and medium-sized enterprise new loans to total incremental rates as high as 38%, which drive the floatation loans accounted for more than 49.2% to 67.2% from at the beginning of the year. 2012 years of new small business loans accounted for more than 40% than the loans, the same as in 2011 or more yields a slightly ascension. Banks have another heavy dividend is JinRongZhai small businesses. Small businesses can't get loans, get to how much parity loan or unknown, through the bank for small micro enterprises, for rural service policy, DaiCunBi pressure bigger Banks have large scale application for small businesses JinRongZhai issue limit, the people's livelihood approved after 50 billion yuan, pu, shenzhen development bank, China travel and has to apply for the issuance of about 110 billion yuan JinRongZhai small businesses. The rise of pricing power also shows in the middle business income, due to financial constraints, bank loans for enterprise to provide all kinds of management advisory services, the enterprise had to accept according to the order. 2011 years ago in the third quarter, the listed bank charges and commissions year-on-year growth overall income reached about 45%, as record high since 2009. Poundage and commission income of listed bank net income growth contribution from less than 1% in 2010 to 2011 years ago significantly increased more than 3% of the third quarter. The traditional payment and settlement business class, the new investment bank kind the business and off-balance-sheet financing the guarantee of the related costs the rate of growth of business promises are obviously improved. Although expect 2012 listed bank fees income growth will be clearly slowing, but will still be year-on-year growth rate as high as 30% above. The management expenses, staff bank pay up not down. According to 16 listed bank 2011 three quarterly reports, the first three quarters in 2011 and listed bank to pay staff add up to 168.144 billion yuan, more than 2010 throughout the year to pay staff more than 146.973 billion yuan from 21.171 billion yuan. In contrast, its business of securities of the company was lost in downsizing, salaries and expenses. Bank profits rise is believed to be the largest assets to cover risk, rapid expansion, service to the real economy needs. This argument doesn't hold water. Any entity economy far beyond the profit of the financing cost, are going to be the real economy the noose. Some people with 2012 Chinese economy forecast too optimistic. The status quo is, cyclical industry into existence dilemma: steel industry is in the break-even point, the offshore industry began to default on the ship of the rent, mechanical engineering industry cash flow sharply, coastal export corporations, small and medium-sized enterprise's purchasing managers index in a crunch range. With the above each industry, it is difficult to make us believe that the following optimistic data in that same period, the profits of large industrial enterprises 3.6834 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%. Among them, the state-owned and state holding enterprise realize the profit of 1.1491 trillion yuan, up 19.8% increase; Collective enterprises, foreign and Hong Kong and Macao Taiwan investment enterprise, private enterprise realize the profit of 59.8 billion yuan respectively, 2.1024 trillion yuan, 958.1 billion yuan and 1.0251 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, 32.4%, 12.9% and 44.7%. The above data against industry status, obviously violates common sense. If the private enterprise profits as high as 44.7%, China would not exist entity enterprise existence dilemma.NHL Hats The author thinks that, in the calculation and private companies profits may, to gather data is wrong, or increase risk investment and financial sector partnership enterprise, thus can be misleading to suspicion. Interest rate controls are all areas has been broken through, a market-oriented interest rate is the trend of The Times. 1 July 7 at the end of the central financial work conference, put forward for entity enterprise financial services that purpose, the only big financial industry a visible decision-making and has caused widespread unrest entity practitioners. Financial services for economic entity, must be in management, interest rate marketization is the fundamental breakthrough. Unfortunately, according to xinhua news agency on 8 January quoted China's central bank governor zhou xiaochuan said words, because China and the developed countries of the interest rate gap is too big, now promote market-oriented interest rate may be a cause of capital flows, and other aspects of the problem, at present of the liberalization of interest rate of opportunity is not very good. Interest rate marketization reform delays, will be the country's economic entity of unbearable heavy. On the surface the interest rate control, actually allow Banks high dividend takings, this MingXiuZhanDao, AnDuChenCang model, for the revitalization of adverse economic entity, to a bank strengthening competition adverse, make China's financial industry in financial services and usury in the deviation of providers, will walk away.

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