Is it far from the 2700 points

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the A share market seemed to have the signs of stabilising built. Hong Kong investment critics CaoRenChao think, near 2700 even if not bottom, not far from the bottom is expected this year, three quarters a-share index attack on will open. Distance is not far already see bottom Chinese stock certificate report: recently the A share market appeared some positive phenomenon, does this mean that A shares near 2700 has been close to the bottom area? CaoRenChao: A shares bull market in November 2008 already began, I believe that the bull market A period (stage) climax in August 2009, low end this year. The second phase of the bull market by the second quarter of this year or third quarter began, the stage is a shares period of development,NFL hats choose a most important to investors. Only a stage of a bull market and bull market 3 period will all stocks are taking off rising, and the rest of the day are individual development. I can say is: A shares near 2700 if not bottom, not far from the day also saw. Past experience in Hong Kong, the bull market phase ii P/E to 18 times in 12 times between up and down, A shares 14.29 times at present already gradually to nearly 12 times low level. China's stock certificate report: you said before the second half of A share market is expected to get out of difficult situation, does it mean that there will be A third quarter wave attack on an option, in economic fundamentals badly, you is how to make this judgment? The opportunities of the market would have detonated what? CaoRenChao: reason is I estimate CPI in early may and June or July peaked, and central bank still have one to two interest rate increases. I estimate that began before the first attack on, so far the above views do not change. China's stock certificate report: A shares after hit bottom is A rebound or reverse, whether can now buy stock first part comes into play, waiting for A trend change? What industry is more likely to stock? CaoRenChao: bull market phase ii including three to five rising waves, time can be generally for over two years. Investors can use of high quality stocks fall collection, once the trend is anacreontic, may already too late. What is more likely to stock? The answer is consumer stocks, but is already not cheap, second is the innovation ability of the industrials, avoid the industrials labor-intensive, such as clothing, toys and part of the electronic shares, focus on investment can be successful enterprise transformation, such as successful develop domestic market of the enterprise. Less than 10% of China's stock certificate report a hard landing possibilities: macro economic negative factors, investors worry China's economy is in 2011 to 2012 "hard", what do you think of this? CaoRenChao: a city property prices into stable or back 10% to 15%. Second city individual development, which is the day of buying in real estate is past, and the day is only hold to, believe that the property prices lift range from 10% to 15%. The yuan rise into the period, the estimate was 2015 years ago to rise by 5% a year. Wages into taking off sharply, estimates that each year rose 13%, the mainland for wage inflation rose sharply hard to come. Monetary policy can still in the third quarter is expected to tighten, into the fourth quarter to neutral. The appreciation of the renminbi, wages rise sharply to stimulate consumption rise but bad for exporters, the above factors, has set up a file in the share price reflected, so already is not important. The second half of China shall complete "soft landing", take off again next year. "Hard" chance to less than 10%. China's stock certificate report: international board for the opening of the A share market will what effects? Whether the Hong Kong market competition form? CaoRenChao: Shanghai establish international board market, A shares must be with the international enterprise, such as HSBC bank investors competition, and this is the A share market P/E gradually with the international stock market P/E standards in the reason. With Hong Kong motherboard form natural market competition, the situation is with Singapore Kuala Lumpur. And who is Singapore, who is Kuala Lumpur? To see Shanghai international board openness to decide. China's stock certificate report: Europe debt crisis further fermentation,baseball hats seems to make the European economy is in deep mire, this to China, as a representative of the emerging market countries export enterprise cause hit hard, and the cost of China's export manufacturing more and more high, China's export situation will you started to drop from a peak? CaoRenChao: Europe debt crisis in the foreseeable future still could not thoroughly solved. Americans do things more thoroughly, so trigger financial tsunami. The European people claim that a skeleton in the cupboard, Japanese, thoroughly solve the problem not drag. China should develop other export market, such as asean, Africa, South America and so on, and then can't rely on the United States and Europe this two big market. China's exports in the gold finish after 30 years, the future can only steady development, and can't keep high growth. Since 2009, China's GDP growth keep pulling power comes from domestic demand, is no longer exports. Look from the international experience, this transformation is going to be a slow, including Hong Kong fastest, because China to follow the path of reform and opening up happened, only 3 years transformation. But if the reference in 1966 to 1982 in the United States, the transition for 16 years. The Chinese transition how long will it take? Hard to estimate beforehand.

see more:The industry average wage of comparison
Through the eye of the ZhangWuChang see the private financial mess