China's financial excess ramble

This paper is to point to talk about the excess revenues (tax revenue) year-on-year growth faster than at the same entity economy of GDP growth rate of year-on-year, or that financial income equivalent to the proportion of GDP increased year by year, the controversial topic recently. First look at the next table, data from the national bureau of statistics, the ministry of finance and the state administration of taxation public information, with comparable for all use current prices, tax for the national tax (including the tax departments such as the collection of customs, etc) net income number, minus the export tax rebate has. The table can be concluded that the GDP over the past 10 years in the compound annual growth rate of 15.40% (current prices, a number of common constant price several high), financial income and tax revenues in the compound annual growth rate were 19.77% and 19.00%. This shows that the excess don't like some of the system of friends said was due to factors caused by price calculated,baseball hats eliminate price factors, finance income tax, income growth has also long time was significantly higher than the entity economy growth. The excess is yes, the reason is more complicated, the change of the structure of real economy, also have a tax system arrangement of change. Statistics in the past 30 years (1981-2010) China's finance income proportion of GDP will find that its conditions experienced a slow flat U glyph. The last time in 20% of the time is 1986 years (20.7%), back to 20% above is in 2009 (20.4%). Cut out the quantity and the system analysis, reality experience whether the relatively low proportion of time is China's economic vitality strongest stage, the proportion of the value indicates whether a system return return factors? Worth pondering, 30 years ago how China economic conditions and not "distant story". Above data only reflect the part of the problem, some study of Chinese people macro tax burden level, they ignored or inconvenient part of the speech is those who should be but not included in the part of the public finance income. The international recognized system is all government income is finance income, are included in the budget management, China will have a significant portion of the government not classified as finance income income, of course, is not included in the budget, including: did not include the budget management of administrative fees and fines, such as civil aviation construction funds government fund income, the transfer of state-owned land use right income, foreign exchange business income, social security funds, according to the statistics in 2007 did not include the aggregate these budget more than 4 trillion yuan, roughly equivalent to the current financial revenue by 70-80%, all the caliber statistics, China's finance income index will be more surprising. China's finance income is about 90% tax income, talks about the tax, have a characteristic can't avoid, is tax subject (enterprise or individual) must be greater than the actual pay total tax, the difference is in the various tax subject fees, fines, and the recourse cable roam bribe, including they are practical burden. The forehead to roam in a quite long time period is not change, it may depend on total tax and tax technicians? We assume that this number is equivalent to 2% of the income tax announced when not exaggerated, if it is so a year will be more than one hundred billion yuan. China's financial excess, it covered another problem is that China's tax cost is too high. According to the state administration of taxation provide information, by the end of 2009, the national tax system has 3567 budget unit, 580600 cadres and employees, 2010 spending budget 80.4 billion yuan, accounting for current tax department shall be responsible for the organization of the tax revenue (less than total tax revenue, and the customs and other department are taxation) of 1.20%, considering that there is a huge land tax system and also some non-budgetary expenditures, China's tax cost estimate that up to 3%, this in the world, is a high ratio, precious tax consumption tax in process become paradox, the reality is it's not worth it. Actually the general public speaking, compared to the above-mentioned problems, they care more about the financial revenues of the excess in where, but this is a basic in China this HuTuZhang. As mentioned above,sunglasses shop the diameter of the China statistics government revenues estimated that 40% or so not included in the budget, the government reports of course not explain the spending, into the part of the budget, often also have been vague, involves detailed the financial revenues of the subjects with digital, often 1, 2 page quickly sent, makers no one can get the effective information. This don't and other countries than (Obama just to the American congress 2012 fiscal year the federal government budget page 216), compared with China's only in Hong Kong, the financial year 2011-12 government budget reached 107 page, is detailed digital, charts, analysis, notes, the supplements, theory China's financial affairs than Hong Kong multifarious every year in China, the government budget into hundreds of pages of the book is a normal, but the reality is a brief terrible. Most ordinary people from the form and in fact can feel the benefits of financial excess, this is the most the place of the excess watch.

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"Limit to buy" whether the alleged discrimination is not the key problem

"Limit to buy" whether the alleged discrimination is not ZhuDaZhi key problems in China's real estate market is going through a dense and dynamics of the unprecedented frequency control. When high house prices in regulation of the punch, the trend of the market become complex; Compared with house prices itself, regulation and control methods and effects become more intriguing: "the most strict regulation" will ever let house prices regression reason? In the investment would blow speculation accidentally sexual needs people improve? Real estate tax how to use? Scholars from renmin exit the real estate industry can shake that high prices? Regulating measures by the series of problems on behalf of the members of the committee became the focus of attention. While the majority of the Chinese people's political consultative conference "the most strict regulation" will influence how the house prices in the problem are optimistic,MLB hats but there are also members think, limit to normal in friendly fire from the purchase demand of discrimination. WangChaoBin members say: limit of two sets of mortgage blow investment, speculation can understand, but the first suite of preferential cancel is up ordinary people that buy a house cost. And "limit to buy," is in big cities built a fence, many have the normal pent-up demand of foreign workers in the block outside. To census register standards, for example, someone working in Beijing for three or four years, but because take out five years of tax payment certificates cannot buy a house, the somebody else give Beijing the contribution, don't let somebody else to buy a house without reason. If someone had two sets of housing, want to take one of the displacement into a bigger, so far, he buy the third suite will be limited, this would affect his normal type needs to improve. "Limit to buy to make" in essence is from a source of capital controls a expediency. But, "limit buy to make" of the most lethal objects but not real estate speculators, but the broader population. As LiDaoKui members of tsinghua university, said the real estate lending rates by menas as an example, it to not need a loan investors have no alternative, also don't tube from other financing channels of investors. But even so, LiDaoKui members still think, "limit buy" is conventional measures under the situation of failure can take a dose of medicine last, in the current real estate prices continued to the higher up, the greater the situation, "limit buy" is like a patient to a high fever TuiShaoZhen agent, has its side effects, and are certainly is necessary. The problem is: don't play "TuiShaoZhen", house prices have been high for the momentum pressure not go down; But fighting, and will even will only hurt accidentally and has a reasonable living demand of ordinary homebuyers (as for people and reasonable investment needs, more isn't). The remedy is worse than the obvious this is a "negative therapy", and no matter whether the move to real "yi", ordinary people sacrifice an expedient normal demand or "with trepidation," really have enough legitimacy? Admittedly, the reform must pay cost, but the cost to the weak or what is for the strong bear by the strong-at least for big head? The answer seems to be self-evident. The Chinese people's political consultative conference WangChaoBin etc that "limit to buy" down people normal demand, there is discrimination outsiders and grassroots people too, did not seem all to no reason. Maybe someone will not be with me: are you standing not waist ache! Don't limit purchase, house prices high, ordinary people still can't afford room? It's a real problem, can avoid. In fact the problem and not couldn't solve it, a lot of people are put forward the fundamental solution: one is the change land fiscal policy, greatly reduce land price; 2 it is the government assume for the vulnerable groups to buy the obligations to provide the welfare house, from the tap needs fuss. About the second point, as it is known that the government has been addressed, a few days ago, live on behalf of the state council JianBu supportability project coordination group living with various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and xinjiang production and construction corps signed 2011 supportability project construction goal responsibility live. Vice premier li keqiang at the meeting stressed that this year engineering construction of 10 million affordable live is YingRenWu, to start all over to arrange, completed and put to use as early as possible. But, easily said but very hard to do, 10 million sets of security room construction cost is a very large number. Although the central government and local governments can take out a sum of money, but the gap is very big still. How to do? A committee suggested: real estate tax once completely spread out, this part of the new local finance should use in affordable housing construction. This of course is very good, but some wishful thinking. Collect the land grant fee before when they have to make clear a regulation, want to take out the certain proportion for housing guarantee construction,Discount sunglasses performing a result is satisfactory. Therefore, to house property tax attributes should be clear, and can't make it simple into the budget, into administrative expenses or used for other purposes, and must use some tax provisions of article this only for affordable housing construction. In addition, through the capital operation, the part of the security room by state-owned enterprises especially to the real estate construction mainly scholars from renmin to complete, and at the same time as the national federations of industry and commerce sponsored by the real estate chamber of commerce and rent fund scheme that, mobilize social forces financing to build security room, these can yet be regarded as is feasible method. The government should further airing, against the ornament, and can't just take the side effects of the administrative management measures a.

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Is it far from the 2700 points

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the A share market seemed to have the signs of stabilising built. Hong Kong investment critics CaoRenChao think, near 2700 even if not bottom, not far from the bottom is expected this year, three quarters a-share index attack on will open. Distance is not far already see bottom Chinese stock certificate report: recently the A share market appeared some positive phenomenon, does this mean that A shares near 2700 has been close to the bottom area? CaoRenChao: A shares bull market in November 2008 already began, I believe that the bull market A period (stage) climax in August 2009, low end this year. The second phase of the bull market by the second quarter of this year or third quarter began, the stage is a shares period of development,NFL hats choose a most important to investors. Only a stage of a bull market and bull market 3 period will all stocks are taking off rising, and the rest of the day are individual development. I can say is: A shares near 2700 if not bottom, not far from the day also saw. Past experience in Hong Kong, the bull market phase ii P/E to 18 times in 12 times between up and down, A shares 14.29 times at present already gradually to nearly 12 times low level. China's stock certificate report: you said before the second half of A share market is expected to get out of difficult situation, does it mean that there will be A third quarter wave attack on an option, in economic fundamentals badly, you is how to make this judgment? The opportunities of the market would have detonated what? CaoRenChao: reason is I estimate CPI in early may and June or July peaked, and central bank still have one to two interest rate increases. I estimate that began before the first attack on, so far the above views do not change. China's stock certificate report: A shares after hit bottom is A rebound or reverse, whether can now buy stock first part comes into play, waiting for A trend change? What industry is more likely to stock? CaoRenChao: bull market phase ii including three to five rising waves, time can be generally for over two years. Investors can use of high quality stocks fall collection, once the trend is anacreontic, may already too late. What is more likely to stock? The answer is consumer stocks, but is already not cheap, second is the innovation ability of the industrials, avoid the industrials labor-intensive, such as clothing, toys and part of the electronic shares, focus on investment can be successful enterprise transformation, such as successful develop domestic market of the enterprise. Less than 10% of China's stock certificate report a hard landing possibilities: macro economic negative factors, investors worry China's economy is in 2011 to 2012 "hard", what do you think of this? CaoRenChao: a city property prices into stable or back 10% to 15%. Second city individual development, which is the day of buying in real estate is past, and the day is only hold to, believe that the property prices lift range from 10% to 15%. The yuan rise into the period, the estimate was 2015 years ago to rise by 5% a year. Wages into taking off sharply, estimates that each year rose 13%, the mainland for wage inflation rose sharply hard to come. Monetary policy can still in the third quarter is expected to tighten, into the fourth quarter to neutral. The appreciation of the renminbi, wages rise sharply to stimulate consumption rise but bad for exporters, the above factors, has set up a file in the share price reflected, so already is not important. The second half of China shall complete "soft landing", take off again next year. "Hard" chance to less than 10%. China's stock certificate report: international board for the opening of the A share market will what effects? Whether the Hong Kong market competition form? CaoRenChao: Shanghai establish international board market, A shares must be with the international enterprise, such as HSBC bank investors competition, and this is the A share market P/E gradually with the international stock market P/E standards in the reason. With Hong Kong motherboard form natural market competition, the situation is with Singapore Kuala Lumpur. And who is Singapore, who is Kuala Lumpur? To see Shanghai international board openness to decide. China's stock certificate report: Europe debt crisis further fermentation,baseball hats seems to make the European economy is in deep mire, this to China, as a representative of the emerging market countries export enterprise cause hit hard, and the cost of China's export manufacturing more and more high, China's export situation will you started to drop from a peak? CaoRenChao: Europe debt crisis in the foreseeable future still could not thoroughly solved. Americans do things more thoroughly, so trigger financial tsunami. The European people claim that a skeleton in the cupboard, Japanese, thoroughly solve the problem not drag. China should develop other export market, such as asean, Africa, South America and so on, and then can't rely on the United States and Europe this two big market. China's exports in the gold finish after 30 years, the future can only steady development, and can't keep high growth. Since 2009, China's GDP growth keep pulling power comes from domestic demand, is no longer exports. Look from the international experience, this transformation is going to be a slow, including Hong Kong fastest, because China to follow the path of reform and opening up happened, only 3 years transformation. But if the reference in 1966 to 1982 in the United States, the transition for 16 years. The Chinese transition how long will it take? Hard to estimate beforehand.

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The beijing-shanghai high iron without nets, highlight based telecommunications facilities planning trouble

The beijing-shanghai high iron opening, media opportunities of become a focus, of course, comes in praise of speed, service of high-grade, ticket price outside the expensive, communication signal stability and the media attention nature to become one of the hot spots. The media reports of the amazing as high iron communication problems, in fact this is not a done, but because in China communications services especially mobile communication service of excessive supply of universal service, at 300 kilometers of high in iron signal is unstable be done no wonder also naturally.MLB hats But the current our country to the infrastructure of planning and construction situation, if the beijing-shanghai high iron can have a stable signal should only be more the explosion of news. ?When faced with the media ask about Internet problem is, construction square chief says: "on the one hand because of the metal manufacturing to signal the body; in addition to a new screened high iron along of communication station configuration are not perfect, we will with the three major telecommunications operators communication, perfecting the line around the base station configuration." Until high iron has been opened, the passengers began to the gate, our high iron construction have come to need and the three operators communication, to perfect the so-called peripheral base station configuration? The beijing-shanghai high iron, from 1990 up on the agenda, to construction began in 2008, over three years, the investment of nearly 230 billion, known as the eight technical innovation of railway construction milestone, in the day of operation problem of the communication that was not solved, unexpectedly still need and operators communication, perfect the so-called base station configuration. The only question is: according to the national telecommunications regulations, as a basic facilities of communication network construction planning and investment, is the beijing-shanghai high iron this milestone ignored in the project? This fact is not only high iron such projects, according to the relevant provisions of the state, telecommunications communication facilities as infrastructure, in the engineering project must be planning, design, construction to through the corresponding examination and approval and acceptance. But in practice, these provisions has largely an empty is not abide by. Only when the public experiences found that the problem will remind of operators need to participate,soccer jerseys and right now, a lot of owner unit and the lion big mouth, management fee, etc names into maintenance fees vary, aggravating the public information service burden, hu. In such a famous and milestone project, communication facilities are not enough attention, and the other can be imagined. In fact the awkwardness of the telecommunications infrastructure planning is the plight of the poor.

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