The bank as food industry

A huge food the class are gouging the Chinese economy, the Chinese economy structure transformation with difficulties. After China's entry into the WTO, enjoy the 10 years of domestic-demand dividends, and the China economy turned to domestic demand from, due to financial constraints, the Chinese economy gradually turned to food and mode. In 2011, the entity economy a devastation, any engaged in capital allocation and related industries, such as guarantee, pawn, bank etc, all can with the benefit, they have actually capital shortage premium and risk premium. The author and even have heard that construction in the room of the company to ensure the low capital, first put into market for big profits. The financial industry interdenominational, eating other industry profits. According to the regulation of the financial departments of the data show that commercial Banks in the first three quarters in 2011 accumulative total net profit of 817.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%. Among them, the workers,best sunglasses farmers, and built into five line of total net profit of 518.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Bank profits from shortage premium and risk premium. The more nervous funds, bank of the lack of the higher premiums for, 2011, bank net spreads significant rebound. In the previous three quarters, and net spreads factor to the listed bank net profit contribution to the growth of 4.6% in 2010 from ascending to 8%. In 2012, the banking industry is expected to net spreads will basic stability, the average net spreads will be higher than that of 2011 5 point or so, net spreads factor to the listed bank of net profit contribution will decline to 1.5% role. The risk premium is reflected in the small and medium-sized enterprise loans, small and medium-sized enterprise, the risk is higher, the bank to demand higher interest rates to cover risk, citic securities research report predicted that as new loans accounted for small and medium-sized enterprises to raise funds than high premium. According to the latest central bank monetary policy implementation report, the first three quarters of 2011 small and medium-sized enterprise new loans to total incremental rates as high as 38%, which drive the floatation loans accounted for more than 49.2% to 67.2% from at the beginning of the year. 2012 years of new small business loans accounted for more than 40% than the loans, the same as in 2011 or more yields a slightly ascension. Banks have another heavy dividend is JinRongZhai small businesses. Small businesses can't get loans, get to how much parity loan or unknown, through the bank for small micro enterprises, for rural service policy, DaiCunBi pressure bigger Banks have large scale application for small businesses JinRongZhai issue limit, the people's livelihood approved after 50 billion yuan, pu, shenzhen development bank, China travel and has to apply for the issuance of about 110 billion yuan JinRongZhai small businesses. The rise of pricing power also shows in the middle business income, due to financial constraints, bank loans for enterprise to provide all kinds of management advisory services, the enterprise had to accept according to the order. 2011 years ago in the third quarter, the listed bank charges and commissions year-on-year growth overall income reached about 45%, as record high since 2009. Poundage and commission income of listed bank net income growth contribution from less than 1% in 2010 to 2011 years ago significantly increased more than 3% of the third quarter. The traditional payment and settlement business class, the new investment bank kind the business and off-balance-sheet financing the guarantee of the related costs the rate of growth of business promises are obviously improved. Although expect 2012 listed bank fees income growth will be clearly slowing, but will still be year-on-year growth rate as high as 30% above. The management expenses, staff bank pay up not down. According to 16 listed bank 2011 three quarterly reports, the first three quarters in 2011 and listed bank to pay staff add up to 168.144 billion yuan, more than 2010 throughout the year to pay staff more than 146.973 billion yuan from 21.171 billion yuan. In contrast, its business of securities of the company was lost in downsizing, salaries and expenses. Bank profits rise is believed to be the largest assets to cover risk, rapid expansion, service to the real economy needs. This argument doesn't hold water. Any entity economy far beyond the profit of the financing cost, are going to be the real economy the noose. Some people with 2012 Chinese economy forecast too optimistic. The status quo is, cyclical industry into existence dilemma: steel industry is in the break-even point, the offshore industry began to default on the ship of the rent, mechanical engineering industry cash flow sharply, coastal export corporations, small and medium-sized enterprise's purchasing managers index in a crunch range. With the above each industry, it is difficult to make us believe that the following optimistic data in that same period, the profits of large industrial enterprises 3.6834 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%. Among them, the state-owned and state holding enterprise realize the profit of 1.1491 trillion yuan, up 19.8% increase; Collective enterprises, foreign and Hong Kong and Macao Taiwan investment enterprise, private enterprise realize the profit of 59.8 billion yuan respectively, 2.1024 trillion yuan, 958.1 billion yuan and 1.0251 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, 32.4%, 12.9% and 44.7%. The above data against industry status, obviously violates common sense. If the private enterprise profits as high as 44.7%, China would not exist entity enterprise existence dilemma.NHL Hats The author thinks that, in the calculation and private companies profits may, to gather data is wrong, or increase risk investment and financial sector partnership enterprise, thus can be misleading to suspicion. Interest rate controls are all areas has been broken through, a market-oriented interest rate is the trend of The Times. 1 July 7 at the end of the central financial work conference, put forward for entity enterprise financial services that purpose, the only big financial industry a visible decision-making and has caused widespread unrest entity practitioners. Financial services for economic entity, must be in management, interest rate marketization is the fundamental breakthrough. Unfortunately, according to xinhua news agency on 8 January quoted China's central bank governor zhou xiaochuan said words, because China and the developed countries of the interest rate gap is too big, now promote market-oriented interest rate may be a cause of capital flows, and other aspects of the problem, at present of the liberalization of interest rate of opportunity is not very good. Interest rate marketization reform delays, will be the country's economic entity of unbearable heavy. On the surface the interest rate control, actually allow Banks high dividend takings, this MingXiuZhanDao, AnDuChenCang model, for the revitalization of adverse economic entity, to a bank strengthening competition adverse, make China's financial industry in financial services and usury in the deviation of providers, will walk away.

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Confidence management originates from confidence

In 2011 the general level of commodity prices rose 8.2%

Tuesday's friends, to make more international political and diplomatic experts. The dinner, Chinese people's university professor JinCanRong doctor says, I don't understand the economy, but there is a problem don't understand, 2010 total GDP about 4 billion yuan, in 2011 about 4.7 billion yuan,best sunglasses the growth rate is about 17%, and the bureau of growth rate of 9.2%, is this why? Don't ask don't know, ask a jump. Very ashamed, as make economic research of scholars, almost no one in the first time to answer the question. Bureau of GDP is the amount of value in the name, and the growth rate is real growth rate, is the comparable price, deduct the prices up factors. But the public does not know, the bureau of what price growth rate is deducted, prices are ShangZhangLv CPI. Let us to calculate. In 2010 GDP for 40.1513 trillion yuan, in 2011 total GDP for 47.1564 trillion yuan, nominal growth rate of 17.4%. In 2011, the consumer price index (CPI growth rate 5.4%, if recoup CPI, the actual GDP growth of 12%. But the state bureau of actual GDP growth rate of 9.2%, is this why? Bureau of GDP is calculated constant price computation, the nominal growth rate and real growth rate for the difference between the GDP deflator, represents the general level of prices, rather than the consumer price level. Therefore,cheap nfl jerseys the comprehensive look, in 2011 the general level of commodity prices actually rose 8.2%, rather than the consumer price rose 5.4%. That is, CPI rose by 5.4%, not consumption that the rising prices so much, but including production material, the general level of commodity prices are up 8.2%, and the price of our life much more influence. Economic data is very important, but to see how you calculation, how to choose.

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When China's evolution for the world's top product?

In 2012, the world economy three suspense

If you think that 2011 years the world economic situation, market confusing falling and high risk factors of words, 2012 days are having a hard time. In addition to the United States in 2011 May be less growth situation improved outside, most existing conflicts, and trouble continue to exist, and will deteriorate further. New contradictions, risk will emerge, the government through the fiscal expansion to stimulate the economy is already close to dispersed, monetary policy has relaxed space and need, but is not necessarily ideal effect. The author thinks that, in 2012, has three big suspense. The debt crisis in Europe debt crisis intensified,baseball sunglasses and to the European countries and the European banking system core spread. European leaders in the last year four save the city, every time is have. In the first half of 2012, Italy face huge funding pressure, France and other core countries risk facing relegation, Greece is likely to default, or even by eliminating the euro zone. The European economy into a recession, unemployment high, and governments have to tighten fiscal, cuts in welfare, the seething popular discontent, political instability is conceivable. Italy in in the present higher translated a lot, near the remedy is worse than the, only for future buried greater consequences. The French rating was cut almost inevitable. Although the total debt better than Italy France, but large fiscal deficits; More important, the French bank faces significant liquidity crises, and may even evolvement for the credit crisis. If the French bank an accident, need government aid, the French national debt may become the next dominoes. If France of the sovereignty of the credit rating is a reduction in the market price level has reflected, if be cut more than two levels, the French sustainable debt paying ability, will be disastrous. Germany's financial situation and financial law is the good, but if the debt crisis further deepening, Germany will have to be involved in the euro debt issuance, it may also was the impact of speculators. The author of the European bank to worry about, or even exceed the European national sovereignty to worry about debt. The European central bank to provide 3 10-year liquidity and six central bank of swap arrangement about dollars, temporarily relieve the original bank crisis looming, but the Banks did not out of trouble. The pig countries and exit the euro debt default, all may be to make European bank asset quality drop, eastern Europe debt crisis also in brewing in. Meanwhile, European Banks need to rapidly increased capital adequacy ratio, hundreds of Banks and translated by now, in the next disaster would be impossible. Tighter credit, economic deterioration, bad debt rise, the circle is hard to break down capital. The bank is the heart of modern capitalism, money is the blood. European Banks once something, at any time can bring a new financial storm. It is not always happen, but risks are, indeed, to rise. Since the fed quantitative loose in the 1950 s from the Treasury after the leadership, bernanke is the most willing to curry favor with the President of the federal reserve chairman. Election year, bernanke to restart the will of the QE is quite high, but the United States congress, the American public opinion but opposed, and even the fed the opinions of the internal unity hard also. Bernanke in waiting for an opportunity. Either the United States economy in the second agent risk, or European bank crisis, the fed can then logical to launch QE3. The author thinks that, the former appear unlikely, the latter possibility of not small. When European Banks into chaos, and may be felt in the us financial system security, QE3 can openly in the house. This event estimated happen in the first half of 2012. Meanwhile, the European central bank may interest rates come down to 0-0.5%, and increase the bonds to buy dynamics, Europe and also join QE. Us and European day three central bank (and perhaps the bank of England) water again hand in hand, may be one of the wonders of the world in 2012. But QE can't save the economy, to the influence of the market is lesser also. If QE2 employment and growth of limited help, QE3 is the same prescription, the effect is not good. The central bank to water, of course, the market mood and liquidity will bring positive exciting, but the market effect is not necessarily can be sustained, energy should also is degressive. To market the most influence QE1, because the central bank when Banks began to increase water lever. From the QE2, after the lever of the bank is no longer increases, still reluctant to economic entity lending, so hard to lasting effect. QE3 introduced, the author believe that Banks are to leverage all for the capital,NBA Hats ready to increase the Basel agreement and struggle. The base currency increase, but the multiplier effect drop, liquidity is still limited. China's financial mess 3 years ago China economic downturn, is the innocent victims of the global financial crisis. But in the past three years, China's economy has produced many of the dislocation and the mess. 2009 years of stimulus, in the author seems to be should, timely, but exit time delay too long, shrinkage strength too light, make a real estate bubble and local debt is out of control. After the monetary policy adjustment, and excessive dependence on quantitative tools in, cause bank intermediary function weakening, shadow Banks in the benchmark interest rate, and market interest rates (that is, the folk lending rate) apart. In 2012 China's financial system into high-risk period. In the economy into a downward cycle, folk lending, development business cash flow could happen at any time, should our estimate jumps, real estate market, local financing platform of small risk. Also, the field of the mess is often a part of a ring buckle. IMF in the recent bank system risk assessment report, the real estate market, shadow Banks, the local finance, look be like their isolation, also in the control of the government in, but several "isolated" event serial blasting, it may bring systemic risk. China's financial risk compared to Europe and the United States wants relatively small, but the intensity of the risk may be the highest after bank reform, and has become a global financial market of new concerns. China's economic growth slowed, have no doubt anymore, but the author do not worry. In the field of finance in a variety of distortion and the mess, and thus may bring financial systemic risk, they cannot treat STH lightly. Today in China in the field of finance potential risks and may be the highest since 1997.

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Of the energy thirsty will be the country's involved in the causes of war

People don't be "copy of the" persuasion

2012 years in the housing market, from the Spring Festival seven days of Beijing "zero clinch a deal", Shanghai 16 sets, guangzhou and shenzhen, two sets of beginning, labeled the QiQiCanCan works of tags. And into the property market in January, quantity and price fell all over all is to give property market coated with ShanYu already to shadow. Figures for 2012 show in January, the national average price for ten cities housing 15565 yuan/square metre, first appeared annulus comparing falls, the annulus fell 0.15% last month. In January, Beijing secondhand the room of 2934 signing, 39 months since a low, compared with 2011 in February during the Spring Festival of 8468 sets, fell 65%. In such a market condition, house prices began to step into the downlink channel, the market will depreciate sales promotion tide has lifted in the industry become a consensus. At the same time, all kinds of people entering the market of persuasion has also has flourished, and in many persuasion, the "the copy of the most. The united ChenJinSong FaWei bo, chairman of the board of real estate, said: "the copy? Everyone wants to copy the bottom, but difficult to choose. In the too long, you can't copy; bottom too short, you not copied. Time is important? If real estate value standard is area, regional, or location; so real estate prices rule is time, opportunity,discount sunglasses or time! But can't catch a catch time points, but time." Said, as real estate, ChenJinSong or very kind, because he did not specify when the bottom of the copy, and no persuasion people entering the market, just shows how to copy to the point of view. The author sees its micro bo, after forwarding and comment on: "a lot of people see some investment began to fall, the copy, so the plan to start looking for a certain price is the bottom of the reason, when he found a lot of reason to think and the reserve price after entering the market, the product prices finally found in decline. This phenomenon in the investment community can be found everywhere, and what?! China real estate in mind, has no investment value. In the world, there is no lack of have no, it doesn't matter, believe that it will have a bottom." From the point of view of investment, ChenJinSong "copy must seize the opportunity of theory", the author is very agree with. But, according to this view, China's real estate market in the future, not only lose in the first few years of the boom the opportunity, but no larger profit space, also won't appear the time to copy. First, China has excessively high house prices in the state, the market just enter downlink channel, for a long time, house prices may not rebound. At present, a line of city house prices has an absolute value and Tokyo, flat area of the same house prices even higher than Tokyo area; A city the housing price to income than is generally more than 20, cloth to all 50 than; Vacancy rates remain high. All these, show that China is excessively high status in house prices. Currently, the continuous control effect, a city house prices began to step into the downlink channel, two three city house prices have started to appear, become loose, there is no doubt that China will be a general decline in house prices. So, for a long time, house prices may not rebound, investment property means assets shrink, of course, won't appear the time to copy. Second, government suppression speculative investment demand will be in for quite a long time to continue, lack speculative investment real estate market of support, house prices rising power has collapsed. January 31, morning, the state council premier wen jiabao presided the state council the sixth plenary session, talking about the 11 th National People's Congress for deliberation by the session of five times the government work report (draft) real estate market regulation, stressed consolidate results. Continue to strictly carry out and gradually improve the investment demand speculation inhibition policies and measures to promote the rational regression house prices. Take effective measures to increase supply general commodity house. Well construction and management of affordable housing. Prime minister two years five times in public to promote the rational regression clear house prices, fully displays the central trouncing the determination of the high prices, and fully show that reasonable in house prices did not appear before the handover, restrain speculative investment policy will be in a long time to can continue. So, lack speculative investment support in the housing market,nfl jerseys cheap rising house prices power will disappeared, also never appear the time to copy. Third, in the near future, China's real estate market has gradually entered the consumer market, the price of the house will be in demand and supply appear under the influence of small wave motion, no rocketing. Since always, China's real estate market the products supplied most is the positioning high-end has been the fact that does not dispute, its target customers lock is guest, high investment income group. The housing market full of frequently dozens, hundreds, thousands of millions, of housing, the housing most investment bought guest (high vacancy rate for proof that), house prices in China and the promotion of the speculating constantly boom. This shows, the real estate market has room to the essence of luxury goods and investment market. Practice proves that the investment to the leading China's real estate market not only not suitable for China's national conditions, more can't well solve the problems people living, but also to the Chinese society to bring a lot of difficult to resolve the conflict. All this suggests that, China's real estate market investment properties are in urgent need of change. We are delighted to see that began in 2010, real estate control, to make Chinese real estate market experienced a major upheavals, security room, low price of commodity supply market gradually to increase, believe that in the near future, the leading real estate market by investment will gradually entered the consumer market era. Back then, house prices will be in demand and supply appear under the influence of small wave motion, no rocketing, also won't appear sharp profit space, natural to also do not have what the time to copy go hand in hand.

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The fate of the euro decision key 30 days

Only the land private can save China economy

You don't agree with, China's economy has the institutional investment and consumption repressed impulses? That is to say, if not coming from the external world of strong absorption, so will appear insufficient effective demand, production relative surplus? But the problem, and in the past has not a problem, because western countries borrowing and spending, deficit spending, the Chinese overcapacity absorbed. In fact, until the second half of 2003, we sector of the economy and economists still talking about stimulating domestic consumption, avoid deflation. Joining the WTO is saved the Chinese economy, join WTO annual average 26% of export growth saved China's economy. But today, the western countries in the crunch, savings in rise, spending on the decline. Foreigners never want lived big villa yesterday, today have no houses to live life. They are more willing to smooth his life consumption. They clearly come over, their way of life is in the past by the fiscal deficit, the hair of the realization of the money, not sustainable. Do you agree or disagree with, the western countries are not two or three years to complete the structure adjustment, the short time can resume normal growth? That is to say, China must be structure adjustment: mainly rely on exports and investment from stimulate economic growth, the transition to rely on consumption,best sunglasses investment and export joint work up economic growth, especially the transition to rely on domestic consumption up economic growth. But, consumption is behind income: no income, it is a joke that consumption; Have the income, don't let people spending it might not have. Rich not spending, don't buy the coffin? Common people not spending the first consideration, they have the income growth. Income has two sources, one is labor income, the other is balance of income. Now in China, because the land, and other important factors of production of the state, and the people get another source of income is human broken. To determine the income of people may not be effective growth. Last year, GDP growth of 9.2%, while the government revenue is growing 25%, then the question, people are below the income growth of GDP growth. This is a important system of reason. In experience, we have not seen a country, land and other important factors of production are all countries, but people income growth fast, is rich, the domestic consumption of strong demand. In fact, it is not difficult to increase income people. A piece of land, if people just have access and earnings, no right of transfer, then the land value in the market will greatly abate. And if still have at the same time transfer rights, then the land value in the market will rise sharply. It is said, only to the complete definition of property, land value will rise sharply, and the people of the assets of the income will soar. This also is to say, only to the complete the definition of property right, can effectively increase the income people, and boost domestic consumption. Say to the definition of property right of land to individuals, someone will say: land privatization, some poor management of farmers, lost land life is no guarantee? Strange to say, our society there is always some people, like when a person's home, do the Lord of the others. You said land privatization, they say lost land peasants poor management of life is no guarantee? You said do private school, they said private school is no guarantee quality, hurt your children? As if they care about my child super is better than we care about their children, as if they care about the fate of the farmers more than farmer brother concerned about their own destiny, like our children, our farmer brother, in their "concern" really live a good life, read up on the good school like. People don't consumption, but also to the real estate and mainly long-term asset prices rising blessing have relations. Asset prices rising long-term blessing, this improved people the opportunity cost of consumption. Think about it, a sum of money if today used to spend than investment, then, yeah, it would give up in asset markets for multiple revenue opportunity, in this case, no compression consumption that is a fool. As to the real estate prices are rising long-term assets blessing, except for the government to send money, and apart from all countries have relationship with the land. The land owned by the state, the economy would lack income carrier. After 30 years of sustainable growth, China has had a huge income stream. This income, must want to have the load bearing carrier. In western countries, land and other important factors of production are private all, every inch of the land, each kind of important elements, are carrying the carrier of income. But we are different, and land, and other important factors of production are all countries, because the cause of the system and not be a stock market, real estate and become a huge income can carry the limited number of one of the carrier, so it is very hard not to strong demand. Think about it, if the land private ownership, so I that hundreds of thousands of dollars is not to invest in the house, but will return to their hometown rural to buy a piece. Although money is not much, but their hometown rural land waste, much less valuable ah. It is not necessarily expected value, but I can choose to vacation in an idyllic life style. But now, I can only investment house. I is individual, trivial, but hundreds of millions of people's collective action will have consequences. Why western countries like us real estate prices no long-term soar up? In addition to their practice outside house property tax, and their private all of land was not the relationship. In fact, asset bubble is not only depressed consumption, also kill industry and commerce. Would like to do industry, but investigation a lap down, manufacturing or services or are not ChaoFang make money. You is a former entrepreneur, you still have idea to do industry? Of course can use investment to replace consumption and promoting the economic growth. But, the investment short-term is demand, long-term and form supply. Perhaps you will say: you have all the land countries said so alarmist, but in the past, we don't is all land country? We are not so high growth? We are not so created the "Chinese miracle"?To this,NHL Hats I want to say is: its circumstances alter cases, the past success does not mean the future success. In the past, land country all is not to say that it is not a disease, but the resulting excess capacity can be absorbed western countries. But now, still can rely on exports to drive the high growth? In the future, must change the national income distribution of the proportion of the government too high, and the products of the present situation of state monopoly operation. And the land, and other important factors of production private all is necessary policy options. These questions do not solve, and the people's income may not effective growth. No income growth, the consumer may not real ascension, economic growth will have to rely on investment pulling, given to long-term buried more hidden trouble. Land and other important factors of production private all, not only can let people get asset returns and effective increase their income, increase domestic consumption, but also increased the wide space absorb excessive money, can effectively restrain the real estate bubble.

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This year China monetary growth goals very difficult

Firmly support tax cuts 1 trillion immediately

The original question: alert to high levels of taxation impact on economic growth is the transformation of the economic transformation "1025" period of an important strategy target, but, for now, high-growth is serious fiscal constraints for the realization of the transformation. The Treasury published by the data shows, in 2011 the total income tax as high as 8.9 trillion, an increase of 22.6%, tax more than 19% of GDP. Among them, the enterprise income tax income tax revenue accounts for 18.7% of Beijing's, and at last September raised the tax amount shall be exempted from after the overall tax burden not only not reduce tax, but rose. Considering the released early as high as 10.4 trillion annual revenues, and keep the nearly 25% of high growth, we have to worry about, so in tax revenue growth mode under, economic growth, how can realize the transition smoothly. At present, China's economic excessive dependence on government investment and export and import, domestic demand has not yet been in GDP growth play a major role in the process, and the consumption of GDP than in the past ten years of falling for present situation. At present,best sunglasses China's household consumption only a third of GDP, less than half of the developed countries, developing countries also far lower than the average level of 55%. The next five years, in order to maintain sustainable economic growth, China's economy must achieve the smooth transition toward relying mainly on internal demand, get rid of the government leading new path, realize industry upgrading and structure optimization. However, the tax years of high-growth seriously hindered the smooth transition of China's economy, the harm is great. First, the tax extraordinary growth, and serious deviation from GDP growth, which deeply demoralized folk capital development industrial passion, interfere with the normal development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Originally, the deformity of the financial system and tightening monetary cycle, so that small and medium-sized enterprise have days was very difficult, plus the high tax burden, and small and medium-sized enterprise can only further into vulnerable groups, serious impact on the employment creation mechanism. Various kinds of taxes in the enterprise business seems too out of date. At present, the value added tax of 17%, 25% of the enterprise income tax, in addition, city building duty (business tax of 7%), price adjustment funds and so on many kinds of fees, plus the environmental sanitation assess fee, fire fee, employee health expenses, etc all kinds of charges and confiscated, plus some place not on the charges, and small and medium-sized enterprise's real even a very large tax burden of data. Although the voice of the tax cuts to small and medium enterprises has been heard, but is always effective little. Current number tens of thousands of small micro enterprise as an example, the past two years the reduction or exemption of total tax each year in 30 billion or so, less than five over one thousand of the total tax deductibles. If considering cuts in the process of the tough standards, not the 1000 all enjoy the tax cuts, so in fact may still lower than the disappointing cut helped drive the Numbers. At the same time, the tax department around in recent years significantly increased the tax collection and management strength, to deal with the tax cuts bring them "income" pressure, a lot of enterprises reasonable avoid (fled) road of the tax break. In such a tax cut under the logic, and small and medium-sized enterprise of the tax burden, if you put your must also unlike past relaxed. Just for ordinary people, the tax burden have pain in the neck. Up to 45% of personal income tax rates, let the middle class in China has been difficult to large-scale molding, plus social security system is insufficient, people will have to most of the income used for education, pension and medical care, difficult to have more cash for daily consumption. Although each year alone total retail sales figures, Chinese residents' consumption doesn't seem small, domestic demand doesn't look is a problem, but it contains more behind is the amount of days pessimistic income, the distribution system malformation. Reality to watch,cheap nfl jerseys the majority of the public the consumption demand of ascension, continue to massive tax cuts is the best policy. If the individual income tax rate can be reduced by half, shall be exempted from the lowest amount and then promoted some, certainly will will form a huge income into the consumer market. In the meantime, if match with appropriate reform of the income distribution, China domestic demand can burst huge potential energy. As prime minister wen jiabao said, "tax cuts and adjusting income distribution is now the most important two things". So, also goes to the government investment, washed away by the real estate bubble two big engine of economic "hard" risk, to realize the economic great transition. Yes, the tax cuts is China to realize the economic transformation of the necessary conditions. Value added tax, consumption tax, business tax, the individual income tax have will step down the space. Although the tax cuts short term may cause tax revenue growth to slow down, but from the long term, but improved the efficiency of enterprises, improve the actual income of the residents, the more cake made, will only make tax revenue to return to high growth. Such a good thing, why not aggressive cash?

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2012 market "spring is assured?

Is "positive" or "passive out" developers "retreat city" tracking

Beijing municipal bureau of industry and commerce has released in 2011, Beijing has 217 of foreign capital enterprise to withdraw from the market of real estate. Last year there were 473 room enterprises in Beijing cancelled. In some parts of the hotspot cities, some developers out of the real estate market. This is policy control of the "active choice," or excessive speculation of after the "passive out?" How to look at the real estate industry a new round of "shuffle", this house prices this year to what effect? To this, "xinhua viewpoint" reporter tracking survey. "From" subordinate property market "to" rushed to exit "in the current round of real estate before regulation," tap into real estate "to become the first choice of many enterprise the nuggets, even some manufacturing, services company also follow suit to join. But with the housing market regulation in-depth, cancellation,baseball sunglasses transfer, and turned...... Many companies from property market. February 13,, industrial and commercial bureau announces Beijing data showed that in 2011, the Beijing foreign real estate enterprise 129 a new home, an reduced by 55.82%. Earlier, the Beijing live is built appoint dispatch says, Beijing Oriental age 473 home such as real estate development enterprise, in the period of not lawfully after application continues, and its development and qualification already logged off. "This phenomenon is not unique to Beijing." Shanghai enjoysmart real estate, vice President of the institute YangGongXu said, in the property market pressure regulation under the joint action, more and more developers out of the sector. Wuhan city housing safeguard and the housing authority of data show that by the end of October 2011, wuhan list of real estate development enterprise 1375 home, than the same period last year more than 200 reduced. The head of the explained, wuhan city in enterprises listed room takes half the project development, and the other half developers "do nothing". Some looking for project, some may be withdrawn from the market. Notable is, in the "retreat city" development enterprise, many in recent years is not "subordinate property market" real estate company. Since last year, there have been ShuiJingFang, HTC, hengshun vinegar industry etc shares's 16 "in room" of the real estate market evacuated the listed company. The other chain home real estate market research, according to preliminary statistics, listed in 2011 room of enterprises, equity transfer 183 Pope, 65% more than last year. "This shows that some of the real estate listed company, is accelerating the transfer of real estate project." January 16,, with operating high-end real estate mainly of guangzhou Milky Way into announced liquor-making industry. Company officials said it will complete the enterprise transformation as soon as possible, to train a new growth point of liquor. This is the industry as room of enterprises "initiative adjusted". Chain home real estate analyst a monthly think, with real estate "golden decade" over, industry control more hasten is thorough, the real estate industry "profiteering era" or will end. "Retreat city" of the developers, many are "swimming naked" speculators, this is really just to squeeze out of the housing market regulation "bubble" one. House prices "reasonable adjustment" how far is it? Live JianBu recently stressed that the national real estate control policies will continue, some place to try to property market "relax" all have been stopped. Earlier, the central economic work conference stressed to reasonable prices back. All the signs are that, this year property market regulation would not relax. "Purchase, such as price fixing limit control policy, the reasonable prices for release regression still have space signal." House property a chain of of the survival of the fittest survive in principle, this year the developers will face policy high pressure, sales, flawed funds and pressures converging, survival more difficult. Shaanxi a real estate company general manager LuoMou said, many developers for, this year will be met three problems: a capital chain tightens, loans and to pay usury on schedule; 2 it is delaying project payment and migrant workers pay, will face conflicts and disputes; Three is sales prices range is too big, may suffer from old owner of pressure. "Now we consider not fall much reduced, but more than compensate compensate few questions." LuoMou said. China vanke Beijing company executives XiaoJin thinks, because of the policy system is not perfect, the domestic market after all is still "policy city". With the housing market regulation thorough, the development enterprise profits will probably more and thin. In response to the capital the tension, open a new round of financing large developers quietly curtain. Only in January this year, China vanke, China resources land holdings, golden section, capitaland, 12 home to bonds, real estate enterprises trust in capital market means such as financing 23.85 billion yuan. But at the same time, the room also will have high pressure due pay trust. Cathay Pacific hand to data shows, expires this year need to pay the total amount of real estate trusts to nearly $200 billion. Taken together, this year listed enterprises financing its cash room to the lows of receivables and sales of superposition, developers facing severe market test. In multiple pressures don't reduce cases, developers want to survive, in addition to "retreat city", can only sales prices. Many experts predict, will present the whole house prices this year "stability have fall" situation, house prices rationally adjust the expected goal to realize. Strengthening "retreat city" regulatory prevent owner "rights difficult" for two years in regulatory, part of the enterprise of real estate development, withdraw back into line or seek other field. To this, the industry thinks generally, the real estate industry to return to the rational development and, in general, "not do more harm than good". "Some developers' retreat city ', will speed up China's room of differentiation, promote enterprise faction of the survival of the fittest shuffle." YangGongXu said, in the face of such situation, have plenty of cash and management of the advantages of the leading company, will have a lot of m&a development opportunities. "At the same time, the developers' retreat city 'phenomenon happens, can also alert some rushed into real estate industry dilettante enterprise." Cause I love my family group vice President HuJingHui said, "it will make other industries to put capital market, focus on main industry development." "The more direct, some developers were forced to 'retreat city', will force a real estate enterprise change state of mind, price as soon as possible survival, speed up the reasonable prices fell back." YangGongXu said. But the reporter found in research, part of the real estate enterprise "retreat city" back there are some risk. First, lousy tail engineering increased, the owner of the house money already paid not checked in. Second, rights constantly imbroglio, defaults salary payment,NBA Hats migrant workers and bank debt phenomenon happens.Thirdly, the follow-up quality dispute is difficult to solve. In wuhan "jas qi apartment", because development enterprise misappropriate funds to open to booking, delaying project payment and the relevant taxes, 308 owner can't deal with house property card, building quality problem constantly. Then for suspected illegal raising $400 million, developers "play missing", the owners' rights impossible position. Against part of little rooms in high capital chain rupture or "retreat city" caused problem, wuhan hundred million room of the research centre MingJingJing experts suggest, relevant departments should enhance the real estate market supervision, the key is to perfect the supervision of the funds to open to booking. "Now the country had been part of a local deposit third party supervision, but still no national uniform standard." Some experts calls for a perfect place property right trading platform, the medium and small developers appear capital to rupture, can through regional property right trading market standard transfer project, avoid project as a "rotten tail engineering". The enterprises for room after the cancellation of development in the event that quality problem qualification, Beijing property market research director of central ZhangDaWei said, and relevant departments should establish quality tracking mechanism, involving the parties to do after a responsibility, avoid TouSuWuMen owner.

see more:Live JianBu policy research center: the property market regulation run not be moved for a long time

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